Summary:
- Sean Dobson says Covid-era economic policies pushed U.S. housing beyond reach for an entire generation.
- Affordability now worse than 2006, with FHA PITI at 42.9% of median income.
- Pandemic stimulus and ultralow rates created a long-term “tax” on the economy and inflated home prices.
- Returning to 2019 affordability would require massive price drops, rate cuts, or income jumps—none realistic alone.
- Post-crisis lending rules lock out half the market, pushing many into permanent renting.
- Institutional landlords like Amherst say they fill the gap left by tight credit and low home supply.
- Dobson warns AI threatens many workers who already struggle with housing costs.
Covid Policies Left ‘$2,000-a-Month Dreams’ Out of Reach for Millions, CEO Says
“We’ve probably made housing unaffordable for a whole generation of Americans,” warned Sean Dobson, the CEO of Amherst Group, in a conversation with ResiClub’s Lance Lambert. Speaking at the ResiDay conference, Dobson reflected on what the country is supposed to do “for the family out there that wants to buy a home,” arguing that the effects of pandemic-era economic policy are still reshaping American life.
Dobson said the “cost of economic policy response to COVID” has pushed homeownership out of reach, estimating that it may take 10 to 15 years of steady income growth before affordability returns to anything resembling “postwar to pre-2006 norms.” He blamed “reckless” monetary policy, surging asset prices, and wage stagnation, warning: “Affordability has probably never been as bad as it is today… You’ve got to be very, very careful.”
A representative for Amherst described the current moment as “the least affordable period in modern history.” PITI on a typical FHA-insured mortgage now consumes 42.9% of median income, worse than the 41.5% peak in 2006, and far above the longer-term 25%–35% range.
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The Price of Covid-Era Firefighting
The onset of Covid-19 triggered trillions in government spending and ultralow interest rates, reviving the 2008 playbook. While these policies were meant to prevent collapse, Dobson argued they created a market where home prices “shot up” and where the Fed’s actions imposed “a tax on the U.S. economy that’s almost 200 basis points.”
He said mortgage and nominal rates today remain “probably 1 [percent] higher than they’re supposed to be given the rate of inflation.”
According to Amherst’s analytics, the U.S. is now “so far away from fair value” that affordability can only return through one of three paths:
- Home prices falling 35.3%
- Interest rates falling 4.6%
- Household income rising 55%
Dobson stressed that none of these scenarios is realistic on its own: only slow, incremental realignment will occur.
Credit Constraints and the Locked-Out Buyer
Dobson also pointed to stricter lending rules introduced after the Great Financial Crisis.
“Subprime mortgages were serving millions of Americans,” he said, but after Dodd-Frank, “there was a maximum credit risk allowed… that only serves the top 25%.” Half the consumer base is effectively excluded, leaving them stuck as renters.
He emphasised how narrow the line is between “prime” and “subprime”:
“Two missed payments. You can go from prime to subprime in two months.”
It then takes five years to climb back out.
The system determining creditworthiness, he added, is “something built in the ’40s.”
Institutional Landlords and the Shift to Renting
Responding to criticism of institutional landlords, Dobson argued that firms like Amherst fill a gap left by tight credit and insufficient homebuilding. Amherst’s residents, he said, often have FICO scores “around 650,” and fewer than 10% have inconsistent payment histories—conditions that, if converted into a mortgage pool, “would be a disaster.”
“The nation is not going to finance [our customers] to live in the home,” he said.
He framed institutional ownership as a necessary adaptation, claiming it delivers stability “when the government and traditional lenders have retreated.”
As for federal solutions, Dobson remained skeptical. Expanding credit access or relaxing lending standards may be required, he argued, but such ideas are “the fastest way to end a meeting with a politician.”
AI, Labour Shifts, and the American Promise
Looking ahead, Dobson said artificial intelligence threatens frontline and service workers—many of whom make up Amherst’s resident base. The median income for new residents is $108,000, yet many work in roles that AI could disrupt “pushing paper and part of the workflow process.”
When asked about the election of Zohran Mamdani—described by The New York Times as “the revenge of the struggling yuppie,” earning around $120,000 yet unable to afford New York—Dobson said only that many Americans feel they “did what they were told… and then they didn’t get what they were promised.”
