“We need to talk about Texas. “Home” Listings just hit 123,000 in April 2025. 53 percent higher than normal. And prices are now dropping across the state,” wrote Nick Gerli, a real estate analyst and the CEO of Reventure App, on X (formerly Twitter).
According to Gerli, Texas has now become the fourth most oversupplied housing market in the United States.
Pandemic Boom Fizzles as Migration Slows
Texas experienced a dramatic influx of residents during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by lower taxes, more space, and affordability. In 2022, net domestic migration brought 222,100 new residents to Texas. But by 2024, that number had dropped to 85,200—a 62 percent decrease, according to Gerli.
“Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15 percent of the country’s new-home permits in 2024.” But with slower population growth and high mortgage rates pricing out many potential buyers, “the increased supply outpaced demand, resulting in downward pressure on prices in major metropolitan areas such as Dallas, Houston and San Antonio.”
Also read: Why Airlines Sometimes Offer Money To Switch Flights
Three Drivers Behind the Surge in Listings
Gerli pointed to three key factors behind the growing housing inventory:
- “A wave of resale of newly constructed homes”
- “A decline in migration into the state”
- “A growing number of locals being priced out of the market”
He added, “Values are down -0.7 percent over the last year, and have dropped -1.6 percent from the middle of 2022.”
In a separate post, Gerli emphasized: “Buyer demand keeps dropping, and listings keep rising.”
Prices Declining Across Metro and Rural Areas
Data from Norada Real Estate Investments indicated that home prices in 31 Texas metropolitan areas are expected to fall by the end of 2025.
Austin stands out among them. Gerli wrote, “That’s the biggest metro-level correction in America in that timespan.” The city has already seen a 20.4 percent drop in home values from the peak of the pandemic and is projected to see a further 0.4 percent decline by October.
Smaller cities are facing even steeper declines:
- Pecos: 9.5 percent projected drop
- Zapata: 7.2 percent projected drop
- Sweetwater: 6.9 percent projected drop
Housing Costs Consuming a Bigger Share of Income
Gerli noted that affordability remains a critical concern, with “the typical mortgage and tax payment now consuming 32.5 percent of a household’s gross income”—well above the historical average of 23 percent.
Slower Sales and Longer Listings
In February 2025, 21,892 homes were sold statewide, a 6.2 percent decrease compared to February 2024. Homes are now sitting on the market longer, with the average time to sell rising to 75 days.
Redfin reported 151,335 active listings, up 16 percent year-over-year. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis had a slightly lower count at 105,867 active listings in February.
Austin and Central Texas See Listing Surge
According to Reventure, listing volume continues to grow rapidly:
- Austin: +16.4% YoY
- Travis County: +12.2% YoY
- Williamson County: +16% YoY
- Hays County: +24.7% YoY
Despite this, Austin received a home price score of 34/100 from Reventure, signaling a likely continued decline. “Unless a drastic shift happens, Austin’s home price growth is likely to decline more in 2025, making it a complete buyers’ market,” Reventure stated.
Expert Commentary on Market Trends
Marco Santarelli, founder of Norada Real Estate Investments, wrote in a February report:
“The Texas housing market currently presents a mixed picture. While the third quarter ended on a positive note with an increase in home sales, other indicators are showing a bit of a slow-down after the superheated market of the past few years. … I believe that the Texas housing market will see a more balanced, and somewhat slower growth trajectory over the next couple of years.”
Nick Gerli also warned:
“I could see a 15-20 percent correction in the cards, especially if there is a recession in the oil industry. Oil prices are down to $57/barrel, and this is a level that’s problematic for Texas’ economy. As many local operators shut down production when oil gets that cheap. Which then has a knock-on effect on local employment and home prices, especially in markets like Houston and San Antonio.”
Chen Zhao, economist at Redfin, told Newsweek:
“Buyers in the weaker Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas may be able to negotiate the best deal and have the most selection [this year]. In other markets, inventory will be lower and there will be less room to negotiate.”
What to Expect in 2025 and Beyond
Gerli projected that Texas home prices could fall an additional 4 percent statewide over the next year. Still, he said, affordability issues are unlikely to go away soon.
“It is still likely that Texas’ market will be about 10-12 percent overvalued at the end of 2025,” Gerli stated, suggesting further price corrections may continue into 2026.
Although falling prices may create opportunities for local buyers, the path forward remains uncertain. Gerli concluded:
“So long as Texas remains this unaffordable for local buyers, its housing market will struggle